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CLASS 1A WEST PLAYOFF POINT PROJECTIONS

TDHelmick

TDHelmick

Hall of Fame Poster
May 29, 2001
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CLASS 1A WEST POINT PROJECTIONS

ALLEGANY vs. Fort Hill
- WIN (10.34)
- LOSE (9.04)

BOONSBORO vs. Smithsburg
- WIN (6.96)
- LOSE (6.16)

CATOCTIN vs.Brunswick
- WIN (6.47)
- LOSE (5.57)

FORT HILL vs. Allegany
- WIN (9.59)
- LOSE (8.29)

FRANCIS SCOTT KEY vs. Winters Mill
- WIN (5.71)
- LOSE (4.61)

NORTHERN vs. Southern
- WIN (6.13)
- LOSE (4.88)

SOUTHERN vs. Northern
- WIN (6.88)
- LOSE (5.84)

DUNBAR vs. Patterson
- WIN (9.68)
- LOSE (8.91)

HAVRE DE GRACE vs. North Harford
- WIN (9.50)
- LOSE (8.50)

-------------------------------

This is definite:
The winner of Allegany vs. Fort Hill will be the #1 seed in 1A West
The loser of Allegany vs. Fort Hill will be the #2 seed in 1A West
This assures that Allegany and Fort Hill will not face each other in back-to-back weeks.

TODD HELMICK' PROJECTION FOR 1A WEST
1. Allegany vs. Fort Hill winner
2. Allegany vs. Fort Hill loser
3. Boonsboro
4. Southern

BASED ON THE ABOVE POINT PROJECTIONS

If Boonsboro beats Smithsburg they are locked in at the #3 seed in 1A West
If Southern beats Northern they are locked in the playoffs / If Southern loses to Northern they are eliminated from the playoffs

For Northern to get in the playoffs they have to beat Southern and hope that Catoctin loses to Brunswick / If Catoctin beats Brunswick then Northern is eliminated from the playoffs
For Catoctin to get in the playoffs they have to beat Brunswick and hope that Northern beats Southern or Smithsburg beats Boonsboro
Francis Scott Key is eliminated from the playoffs win or lose. They have no mathematical chance at getting in.

If Smithsburg beats Boonsboro - Southern with a victory over Northern would slide Southern into the #3 spot in 1A West
If Smithsburg beats Boonsboro - even with a 6-4 record, Boonsboro could still get in the playoffs if Catoctin loses to Brunswick

CLASS 1A SEEDINGS
If Allegany beats Fort Hill then Allegany is the overall #1 seed in all of Class 1A
If Fort Hill beats Allegany then Fort Hill is the overall #2 seed in all of Class 1A - however this is only a tiny amount of points based on projections. So this is no guarantee depending on how bonus points with defeated opponents work out.

Based on these projections the overall seeding for CLASS 1A if Alco beats Fort Hill:
1. Allegany (10.34)
2. Dunbar (9.58)
3. Havre De Grace (9.50)
4. South Region (Douglass PG / Lackey)

Based on these projections the overall seeding for CLASS 1A if Fort Hill beats Alco:
1. Dunbar (9.68)
2. Fort Hill (9.59)
3. Havre de Grace (9.50)
4. South Region (Douglass PG / Lackey)

 
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TDHelmick said:
CLASS 1A WEST POINT PROJECTIONS

ALLEGANY vs. Fort Hill
- WIN (10.34)
- LOSE (9.04)

BOONSBORO vs. Smithsburg
- WIN (6.96)
- LOSE (6.16)

CATOCTIN vs.Brunswick
- WIN (6.47)
- LOSE (5.57)

FORT HILL vs. Allegany
- WIN (9.59)
- LOSE (8.29)

FRANCIS SCOTT KEY vs. Winters Mill
- WIN (5.71)
- LOSE (4.61)

NORTHERN vs. Southern
- WIN (6.13)
- LOSE (4.88)

SOUTHERN vs. Northern
- WIN (6.88)
- LOSE (5.84)

DUNBAR vs. Patterson
- WIN (9.58)
- LOSE (8.91)

HAVRE DE GRACE vs. North Harford
- WIN (9.50)
- LOSE (8.50)

-------------------------------

This is definite:
The winner of Allegany vs. Fort Hill will be the #1 seed in 1A West
The loser of Allegany vs. Fort Hill will be the #2 seed in 1A West

TODD HELMICK' PROJECTION FOR 1A WEST
1. Allegany vs. Fort Hill winner
2. Allegany vs. Fort Hill loser
3. Boonsboro
4. Southern

BASED ON THE ABOVE POINT PROJECTIONS

If Boonsboro beats Smithsburg they are locked in at the #3 seed in 1A West
If Southern beats Northern they are locked in at the #4 seed in 1A West / If Southern loses to Northern they are eliminated from the playoffs

For Northern to get in the playoffs they have to beat Southern and hope that Catoctin loses to Brunswick / If Catoctin beats Brunswick then Northern is eliminated from the playoffs
For Catoctin to get in the playoffs they have to beat Brunswick and hope that Northern beats Southern or Smithsburg beats Boonsboro
Francis Scott Key is eliminated from the playoffs win or lose. They have no mathematical chance at getting in.

If Smithsburg beats Boonsboro - Southern with a victory over Northern would slide Southern into the #3 spot in 1A West
If Smithsburg beats Boonsboro - even with a 6-4 record, Boonsboro could still get in the playoffs if Catoctin loses to Brunswick

CLASS 1A SEEDINGS
If Allegany beats Fort Hill then Allegany is the overall #1 seed in all of Class 1A
If Fort Hill beats Allegany then Fort Hill is the overall #1 seed in all of Class 1A - however this is only by one/tenth of a point based on projections. So this is no guarantee depending on how bonus points with defeated opponents work out.

Based on these projections the overall seeding for CLASS 1A
1. Allegany (10.34) or Fort Hill (9.59) winner
2. Dunbar (9.58)
3. Havre De Grace (9.50)
4. South Region (Douglass PG / Lackey)

This is incorrect. MPSSAA release points today and Dunbar has the most points overall in all of 1A. As JMT posted on the Baltimore Sun sight. If the favorites all win Ft. Hill ends up with a 9.5 average and the North Region had the most points overall. Ft. Hill and Havre de Grace will both have a 9.5 average so don't know who the nod goes to. Again this if all the favorites win
Click to expand...
 
Just My Thoughts on the Sun Board has Dunbar projected at 9.7 and Reginald Lewis at 9.8....I haven't dug into those numbers. That would put them ahead of Fort Hill as the # 1 seed. Any insight?

Also, I know Melbourne had the 11 game schedule or whatever and the one game was cancelled. I assume the MPSSAA realizes all this and will actually allow us the chance to earn Fort Hill that Bonus Point for this weekend's game. I just always worry when it comes to the MPSSAA.

It is all so close.
 
He could be wrong, i mean he is wrong about Fort Hill, I guess he isn't allowing for the effect of the 9 game schedule, that's what it appears to be.
 
Seasoned Lettuce said:
Just My Thoughts on the Sun Board has Dunbar projected at 9.7 and Reginald Lewis at 9.8....I haven't dug into those numbers. That would put them ahead of Fort Hill as the # 1 seed. Any insight?

Also, I know Melbourne had the 11 game schedule or whatever and the one game was cancelled. I assume the MPSSAA realizes all this and will actually allow us the chance to earn Fort Hill that Bonus Point for this weekend's game. I just always worry when it comes to the MPSSAA.

It is all so close.
Click to expand...

VERY CLOSE
I am taking the liberty of projecting Dunbar to beat Reginald Lewis by a large margin in their North regional playoff, so yes I discounted/eliminated Reginald Lewis.

Yes, the MPSSAA is aware of the Melbourne Central Catholic 10 game schedule. MCC is currently 6-3 and plays Fort Pierce Central this Friday. MCC is projected to win by a large margin but this is a very crucial game for FH if they wish to take the overall 1A top seed. The only other win point FH can pick up is Keyser/Mountain Ridge winner.

Dunbar will get 6 points for beating Patterson. Dunbar will get .90 win points for Edmondson-Westside vs. Mervo winner and 1.00 win points for City vs. Poly winner. That is a definite 1.90 win points for Dunbar. The games we don't know for Dunbar are:
Digital Harbor vs. Concordia Prep (worth .90 points)
Douglass (Balt) vs. Green Street Prep (worth 1.00 points)
Potomac vs. Eleanor Roosevelt (worth .90 points)

Confusious say...
Dunbar currently has 76.50 total points. They will have a guaranteed 7.90 points if they beat winless Patterson. I am projecting Digital Harbor and Douglass (Balt) to win and Potomac to lose for another addition of 1.90 points. This is how I come up with 76.50 + 9.80 = 86.30. Divide that by 9 and you get 9.58.

THANK YOU TODD HELMICK
I called the MPSSAA point total office today to report an error. They have Boonsboro with a 6.48 point average. I had them higher at 6.67. After talking with the MPSSAA they were not aware that Concordia Prep (who Boonsboro beat) picked up a game last week against a team from Long Island, NY to get a 10 game schedule instead of 9. That changes the point totals for Boonsboro to what I have. The MPSSAA said thank you so much and that is correct. What that also means in a bigger picture is that Digital Harbor also plays Concordia Prep this weekend. If Digital Harbor wins they now get .90 points for Dunbar as opposed to 1.00 points. That is the difference and probably why Just My Thoughts projections are a hair off from mine. WINNER, WINNER, CHICKEN DINNER.

However...
Regardless of where FH/Dunbar wind up in this scenario, with Havre de Grace losing last weekend it assures that Dunbar WILL NOT have to travel to Cumberland for a playoff game. Nor will Allegany or Fort Hill have to travel to Dunbar. These teams can only meet in the state title game now. What it does mean is who has to play Havre de Grace in the semifinal.
 
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Hot Damn.............every football program needs a Todd Helmick, and the MPSSAA needs oversight from the Nerds. It's been many, many years now, but I caught something with respect to an improper classification of Hedgesville I think, it was screwing Fort Hill out of a point and it was a point desperately needed. Anyway, somewhere in the archives I have the old emails between me and I think it was Dr. John Cox...it worked. So thanks Todd, thanks a bunch for the time and effort you put into all this.
 
Oh snap, he is correct, can't trust MaxPreps who is showing Patterson at 0-8, they are in fact 1-8 with that win, according to the MPSSAA.
So if Dunbar is at 76.50 now, add 6.9 for beating Patterson, do that brings them to 83.40. Then you have to add in 3.8 for the 4 wins you reference, so that takes them to 87.2. Divide 87.2 by 9 and you get an average of 9.69 for Dunbar. Fort Hill is projected at 9.59. I see us being number 2 and hosting Havre de Grace the 3rd seed.
 
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Oh snap, that is correct. I had Patterson winless. So now I am as guilty as the MPSSAA. I will adjust. Sorry.
 
How many truly good games have we seen this year? Alco/Dunbar, Fort Hill/Melbourne, Fort Hill/Friendship, and maybe Williamsport/Alco?

There seems to be so much of a disparity between team's this year. Even more than normal. You can usually put several team's together on several different levels in most seasons. This year it seems as if each team is on their own level. A straight 1 through 16 down the list. And the difference between the team's on each level seems to be 7-10+ points.

Example...
(1)Fort Hill +14 over (2)Allegany
(2)Allegany +21 over (3)Keyser
(3)Keyser +14 over (4)Mountain Ridge
(4)Mountain Ridge +10 over (5)Southern
(5)Southern +10 over (6)Northern
Etc......

You could argue the order of 4 through 6. But the point spread is probably correct. And it probably is a bit conservative.
 
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I like the conversation. I disagree FH being +14 over Allegany
You also thought Southern could play with Allegany.
 
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Seasoned Lettuce said:
Oh snap, he is correct, can't trust MaxPreps who is showing Patterson at 0-8, they are in fact 1-8 with that win, according to the MPSSAA.
So if Dunbar is at 76.50 now, add 6.9 for beating Patterson, do that brings them to 83.40. Then you have to add in 3.8 for the 4 wins you reference, so that takes them to 87.2. Divide 87.2 by 9 and you get an average of 9.69 for Dunbar. Fort Hill is projected at 9.59. I see us being number 2 and hosting Havre de Grace the 3rd seed.
Click to expand...

I think HDG presents an easier road than facing Douglass (PG)
 
Williamsport/Alco was one of the better games of the year played in the stadium. Williamsport had a 2 TD lead in the 3rd quarter and the game had lots of big plays, fake punt, fumble return for TD and a big Alco comeback. Williamsport has gone on and had a nice year, 2A west playoff contention with 6-3 record. Crushed Catoctin, beat both Hagerstown teams. Losing to Boonsboro 7-6 last week killed them.
 
cumbfanatic said:
I like the conversation. I disagree FH being +14 over Allegany
You also thought Southern could play with Allegany.
Click to expand...
Not all of us. I said it would be a complete blow-out. As a matter of fact, I posted, weeks before they played, that I could not believe that Allegany was even worried about Garrett Co. teams.
 
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Seasoned Lettuce said:
Boyz/Todd....I might go so far as to say Douglass PG and Lackey will beat Dunbar. Look at their losses, especially Douglass.
Click to expand...
Please explain what there loses have to do with it? Dunbar and Douglass both have a commmon opponent in potomac. They both beat. Just not understanding you logic?
 
cop123 said:
Please explain what there loses have to do with it? Dunbar and Douglass both have a commmon opponent in potomac. They both beat. Just not understanding you logic?
Click to expand...
Losses were to formidable opponents...meaning they aren't typical 1A teams with a few losses.
 
Will beat Dunbar may have been too strong of language for what I intended. Dunbar remains a tough out, but I think these teams have a shot.
 
cumbfanatic said:
I like the conversation. I disagree FH being +14 over Allegany
You also thought Southern could play with Allegany.
Click to expand...
I'll fully admit that I was wrong about how good Southern was. I also underestimated how much Allegany has improved since I saw them last. If I were to adjust it I would only move it down to +10. I still believe Fort Hill is two scores better than Alco.
 
TDHelmick said:
Would you make Douglass a favorite over Lackey?
Click to expand...

Yes, but I think it's going to be a close game. I may be underestimating HDG though, if you remember last year the title game was still tight in the 4th quarter - although that may have been because FH took their foot off the gas a little bit.
 
According to both westernpafootball and MaxPreps, Westinghouse has a game this weekend vs Berlin-Brothersvalley - a game they would be projected to lose.

If that game is played, that would make Westinghouse a 10-game team and therefore Ft. Hill would only receive 5.0 points instead of 5.5 points for their forfeit win over Westinghouse.
 
westernMD said:
Williamsport/Alco was one of the better games of the year played in the stadium. Williamsport had a 2 TD lead in the 3rd quarter and the game had lots of big plays, fake punt, fumble return for TD and a big Alco comeback. Williamsport has gone on and had a nice year, 2A west playoff contention with 6-3 record. Crushed Catoctin, beat both Hagerstown teams. Losing to Boonsboro 7-6 last week killed them.
Click to expand...

Williamsport should have never lost to Boonsboro! Much better talent all over the field, but Boonsboro made adjustments and Williamsport did not! That loss was all on the coaching staff!
 
Neutral Observer said:
According to both westernpafootball and MaxPreps, Westinghouse has a game this weekend vs Berlin-Brothersvalley - a game they would be projected to lose.

If that game is played, that would make Westinghouse a 10-game team and therefore Ft. Hill would only receive 5.0 points instead of 5.5 points for their forfeit win over Westinghouse.
Click to expand...

Westinghouse also played Taylor Allderdice twice, winning the first time and losing the second. Only the first game counts when playing the same opponent twice. By MPSSAA rules Westinghouse is currently 5-3.
 
Neutral Observer said:
According to both westernpafootball and MaxPreps, Westinghouse has a game this weekend vs Berlin-Brothersvalley - a game they would be projected to lose.

If that game is played, that would make Westinghouse a 10-game team and therefore Ft. Hill would only receive 5.0 points instead of 5.5 points for their forfeit win over Westinghouse.
Click to expand...


Isn't that a playoff game and therefore not count toward the MPSSAA ratings?
 
TDHelmick said:
Westinghouse also played Taylor Allderdice twice, winning the first time and losing the second. Only the first game counts when playing the same opponent twice. By MPSSAA rules Westinghouse is currently 5-3.
Click to expand...

Not true.

That rule was changed 2-3 years ago and it now only applies to MPSSAA teams that play the same opponent twice. The updated rule even emphasizes, in bold, that the rule only applies to MPSSAA teams.

"When a MPSSAA team plays the same opponent twice during the regular season, only the first
game should count to determine team record and points. No points (bonus or win points) for
any teams will be awarded based on the second game."

This situation has occurred about once a year since they changed the rule, and every time the MPSSAA recognized the second game played.
 
Arcadia, Va. and Nandua, Va. played twice this season, splitting the two games.

The MPSSAA recognizes the wins of both games and treats both teams as playing 10-game schedules.

The MPSSAA points total for Col. Richardson, Stephen Decatur, Washington, JM Bennett and Cambridge/SD are all consistent with the MPSSAA recognizing the 2nd Arcadia/Nandua game.
 
Therefore, the conclusion is Westinghouse will be playing a 10th game this weekend and Ft. Hill will receive 5.0 bonus points, instead of 5.5 bonus points, if Westinghouse loses and 6.0 bonus points if Westinghouse wins.
 
Neutral Observer said:
Therefore, the conclusion is Westinghouse will be playing a 10th game this weekend and Ft. Hill will receive 5.0 bonus points, instead of 5.5 bonus points, if Westinghouse loses and 6.0 bonus points if Westinghouse wins.
Click to expand...
How do you count Playoff Games in the point system?
Westinghouse at Berlin is a PA Playoff Game.
also MPSSAA requires Teams to turn in opponents schedule before the season and cannot add if those teams pick up a game.
 
Another episode of "As the World Turns" with the MPSSAA football playoff system.....

To me, playing an 8-game schedule, 9-game schedule or a 10-game schedule is something determined before the season begins. You can't now say, oh, Team A played 9 regular season games but since they played a 10th game in the playoffs, they now have a 10-game schedule. But, nothing would surprise me with our friends at the MPSSAA.

I sense another "screw the pooch" to the ol' Western Marylanders.
 
Using this my final projection still does not change:

1. Dunbar (9.68)
2. Fort Hill (9.50) TIEBREAKER: 49 bonus points
3. Havre de Grace (9.50) TIEBREAKER: 41 bonus points
4. South Region winner

Games that affect these projections (assuming teams in bold win):

Dunbar at Patterson
Digital Harbor at Concordia Prep
Douglass (Balt) at Green Street Prep
Potomac at Eleanor Roosevelt

Allegany at Fort Hill
Westinghouse at Berlin Brothersvalley
Fort Pierce Central at Melbourne Central Catholic

North Harford at Havre de Grace
Edgewood at Fallston
Bohemia Manor at Perryville
Reginald Lewis at NAF
 
Thanks Neutral for coming here.

Also of note: USO now has a 10 game schedule based on this information. That takes .40 points off as well. I adjusted for this.
 
Todd (both of them). Nice job on the scheduling for the year. With a win at Homecoming, FH is basically in the same playoff position as the last four years (fingers crossed on the bonus point totals). Let's win on Saturday and see where the chips fall.
 
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