Just curious what is your take on polls showing Biden up 14 points?
I always look at the internals of a poll before trying to assess anything by them. First of all, margin of error is not what they are selling. The margin of error is not the accuracy of the result of a given question. A margin of error is if you took the same poll in the same way you would get the same result within a given margin. Big difference. Stupid methodology in: stupid results out.
So, the current Biden polls are usually taken of 800 to 1200 adults nationally, 18 years old or older. They also have between 24 - 26% republicans and 35 - 38% democrats.
Given that you would have to be over 60 to really know who Joe Biden is, I think the polls reflect Trump against a random democrat. With that in mind, a lopsided political spread of adults - not likely voters - with a polling age starting at 18, I would think 14 points sounds right. It does, however, have absolutely nothing to do with projecting the upcoming election.
I think the election will be determined by Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida. I can't see Biden carrying Florida despite the corruption in Miami Dade. Then too, Biden is going to have to campaign personally in the other 3 states to win.... which he can't afford to do. The more exposure he gets the more votes he loses, particularly when he would stumble pronouncing Wisconsin when, in fact, he was actually in Michigan. And 'lunch pale' Joe has lost its shine in PA.
Hence, more "everybody be Kung flu fighting.... spreading fast as lightening." Heavy up late September into October lockdowns in swing states.
Therefore, I see Wolf doing an executive order in PA on mail in balloting and vote harvesting. This will happen too close to the election for courts to overturn it.... maybe. In the last election, Trump was able to overcome the - how late can you count before you run out - Philly corruption. The Lancaster Amish vote (Trump campaigned in Amish farms) was so huge that Philly just couldn't manufacture enough votes to overcome it. So, if no massive mail in votes or vote harvesting then Trump wins.... otherwise Biden steals PA.
Witmer will do the same thing in Michigan. If folks have to show up to vote (other than absentee), Trump wins. Mail and harvesting.... Biden wins.
Wisconsin's supreme court will not put up with shit. Trump carries Wisconsin.
If Biden carries Michigan and PA, he wins.