I have ran all the numbers and made these projections based off CalPreps' Project a Matchup Program. CalPreps is incredibly accurate, but of course, there are no gaurantees. Here are the projections and some analysis.
Of the 9 1A West Region Teams, there are 5 that are essentially in the hunt for the 4 playoff spots, they are Boosnboro, Fort Hill, Allegany, Smithsburg and Northern. While Clear Spring and Hancock are projected to finish at or above .500, the quality of their wins are so poor that they remain a non-factor.Neither team should finish above the 50 point/5.0 average threshold. Boonsboro, Fort Hill, Allegany, Smithsburg and Northern all do.
So, in the hunt are BOONSBORO, FORT HILL, ALLEGANY, SMITHSBURG, and NORTHERN. If CalPreps' projections for all remaining games holds true, the resulting playoff points will be as follows:
1) Boonsboro 9.33 (Undefeated, finishes 10-0)
2) Fort Hill 7.98 (Losses to Keyser and Sherando, finishes 7-2)
3) Allegany 7.16 (Losses to Keyser and Fort Hill, finishes 8-2)
4) Smithsburg 5.82 (Losses to Manchester Valley, Catoctin and Boonsboro, finishes 7-3)
5) Northern 5.26 (Out) (Losses to Smithsburg, Keyser, Allegany and Boonsboro, finishes 6-4)
One thing I'll mention, if the above projections hold true, it is interesting that the team left out (Northern), ironically had the chance to make the playoffs by playing Regional competition. So in many ways it can't be said they didn't have control over their own destiny. 3 of their 4 losses would have been to Regional competition. Of course, Northern still holds control over things, all it will take is a win over Allegany or Boonsboro, or a MAJOR slip up from the other teams.
As you are aware, there are several different scenarios, and while we can't predict all of them, at a later point, perhaps later tonight, I will at least provide you with points and averages for the above 5 teams in the hunt assuming certain scenarios. You can redo the projected standings based on different scenarios if you like.
Of the 9 1A West Region Teams, there are 5 that are essentially in the hunt for the 4 playoff spots, they are Boosnboro, Fort Hill, Allegany, Smithsburg and Northern. While Clear Spring and Hancock are projected to finish at or above .500, the quality of their wins are so poor that they remain a non-factor.Neither team should finish above the 50 point/5.0 average threshold. Boonsboro, Fort Hill, Allegany, Smithsburg and Northern all do.
So, in the hunt are BOONSBORO, FORT HILL, ALLEGANY, SMITHSBURG, and NORTHERN. If CalPreps' projections for all remaining games holds true, the resulting playoff points will be as follows:
1) Boonsboro 9.33 (Undefeated, finishes 10-0)
2) Fort Hill 7.98 (Losses to Keyser and Sherando, finishes 7-2)
3) Allegany 7.16 (Losses to Keyser and Fort Hill, finishes 8-2)
4) Smithsburg 5.82 (Losses to Manchester Valley, Catoctin and Boonsboro, finishes 7-3)
5) Northern 5.26 (Out) (Losses to Smithsburg, Keyser, Allegany and Boonsboro, finishes 6-4)
One thing I'll mention, if the above projections hold true, it is interesting that the team left out (Northern), ironically had the chance to make the playoffs by playing Regional competition. So in many ways it can't be said they didn't have control over their own destiny. 3 of their 4 losses would have been to Regional competition. Of course, Northern still holds control over things, all it will take is a win over Allegany or Boonsboro, or a MAJOR slip up from the other teams.
As you are aware, there are several different scenarios, and while we can't predict all of them, at a later point, perhaps later tonight, I will at least provide you with points and averages for the above 5 teams in the hunt assuming certain scenarios. You can redo the projected standings based on different scenarios if you like.
