Official Predictions for Fort Hill vs Douglass
- Thread starter 20Trap
- Start date
I watched all of the Douglass playoff games on video. I hate making predictions because people use it against you as no one can be right all the time. If I was right all the time I would be living the high life in Vegas. So take what I say with a grain of salt please.
The Douglass vs. Dunbar game looked like sloppy sandlot. It was so bad it was hard to watch. I still believe Dunbar is the better team but they royally stunk last week. The Poets run a deep pistol offense and it was 50/50 whether their center could even get the snap back, which killed a few drives. That was for starters in the heavy rain. Dropped passes (I counted five), fumbles, penalties on key plays - one that negated a 70 yard TD run. Douglass scored on two very long runs off broken tackles. The week before in the regional final I watched Fairmont Heights go up and down the field on Douglass in the 2nd half after being down 14-0. Douglass easily could have lost all three playoff games including Lackey. Honestly, I see undisciplined football.
The Douglass QB is a sophomore. He isn't a killer threat to run and he has 4 TDs to 8 INTs on the year. The Douglass damage has come mostly from senior running back Cameron Munoz. If he breaks a few tackles and gets into the open field he can score. They run a single veer offense with a great deal of single back / double tight end sets. They have a spread package but usually stick to a 2 WR set. They run the ball 64% and throw it 36% so they get some decent balance.
The defense is a 4-3 or 3-4 base with a 2 deep safety. They succeed on that side of the ball with athleticism,, not pure power and size. I don't think we will see a two-deep safety against FH though. They are athletic so I don't see teams in shot gun or pistol having any success, which is all Douglass saw in the playoffs. You have to line up and go right at them quick. Henceforth...a wing T attack. FH is well fitted for doing this.
I think FH has the better line (which usually is a key indicator). The FH defense does not take a back seat in the speed department. They definitely have a better kicking game. Douglass really struggles there. Man, I hate to say this but I don't see anything on video that tells me Douglass is a sound football team. I can see FH getting on them pretty good. But if like the other playoff games, Douglass gets out on top early and keeps it close they obviously have been successful in that role. All their games were close, I see the other teams losing because they made the monster mistakes. That is a credit to Douglass though. Undisciplined they may be but I don't see them making the big mistakes. If FH continues to protect the ball and cut the penalties as they have the last half of the season while not underestimating Douglass they should be fine. Hopefully beating Dunbar made them well aware.
Coach Pinkney has been around a long, long time. He a'int no fool and I think anyone associated with FH football has nothing but respect for this man 365 days a year as a coach and a person. Do not underestimate him.
I will close by using an analogy I have used many times: Douglass cannot beat FH by a significant amount on the scoreboard. FH can. I don't see it going that way however but it's a good take on who I think is the better team.
The Douglass vs. Dunbar game looked like sloppy sandlot. It was so bad it was hard to watch. I still believe Dunbar is the better team but they royally stunk last week. The Poets run a deep pistol offense and it was 50/50 whether their center could even get the snap back, which killed a few drives. That was for starters in the heavy rain. Dropped passes (I counted five), fumbles, penalties on key plays - one that negated a 70 yard TD run. Douglass scored on two very long runs off broken tackles. The week before in the regional final I watched Fairmont Heights go up and down the field on Douglass in the 2nd half after being down 14-0. Douglass easily could have lost all three playoff games including Lackey. Honestly, I see undisciplined football.
The Douglass QB is a sophomore. He isn't a killer threat to run and he has 4 TDs to 8 INTs on the year. The Douglass damage has come mostly from senior running back Cameron Munoz. If he breaks a few tackles and gets into the open field he can score. They run a single veer offense with a great deal of single back / double tight end sets. They have a spread package but usually stick to a 2 WR set. They run the ball 64% and throw it 36% so they get some decent balance.
The defense is a 4-3 or 3-4 base with a 2 deep safety. They succeed on that side of the ball with athleticism,, not pure power and size. I don't think we will see a two-deep safety against FH though. They are athletic so I don't see teams in shot gun or pistol having any success, which is all Douglass saw in the playoffs. You have to line up and go right at them quick. Henceforth...a wing T attack. FH is well fitted for doing this.
I think FH has the better line (which usually is a key indicator). The FH defense does not take a back seat in the speed department. They definitely have a better kicking game. Douglass really struggles there. Man, I hate to say this but I don't see anything on video that tells me Douglass is a sound football team. I can see FH getting on them pretty good. But if like the other playoff games, Douglass gets out on top early and keeps it close they obviously have been successful in that role. All their games were close, I see the other teams losing because they made the monster mistakes. That is a credit to Douglass though. Undisciplined they may be but I don't see them making the big mistakes. If FH continues to protect the ball and cut the penalties as they have the last half of the season while not underestimating Douglass they should be fine. Hopefully beating Dunbar made them well aware.
Coach Pinkney has been around a long, long time. He a'int no fool and I think anyone associated with FH football has nothing but respect for this man 365 days a year as a coach and a person. Do not underestimate him.
I will close by using an analogy I have used many times: Douglass cannot beat FH by a significant amount on the scoreboard. FH can. I don't see it going that way however but it's a good take on who I think is the better team.
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I think you may be right, Lags. I think the rain helped FH vs. HDG a lot.
How can you say that? Do you really think HdG would've fumbled every snap on a dry field? C'mon, man...geeze.
Well, we would have seen more catches from Deion Sanders but then also more unsportsmanlike penalities.....so it's a wash I think.
Still looking at their losses... all from good non 1A teams with winning records this year. Don’t be surprised if they shut down the FH running game.
Yes, we see this in both losses to Friendship and Dunbar last season. It's a problem for sure if the other team stops the run. At least FH has an incredible defense to counter if so.
Ouch! We are now looking at solid rain (90% chance) starting at 2PM and probably continuing through the game. That puts somewhat of a dagger in FH's kicking game and increases the turnover potential.
I'm adjusting the game to tossup.
I'm adjusting the game to tossup.
They've played in rain all season. If it does rain I think it will have minimal effect on what FH will be able to do
I hope you are correct in this game. My earlier projection was based on FH's kicking game: getting maybe 4 or more field goals, pinning Douglass deep on their side of the field and generating turnovers. I think the rain levels things out..... it surely did for Dunbar vs. Douglass.
And now they play the game.
Dunbar had trouble getting good snaps like grace did. I think 3 will still be big in this game.
If Douglass is as hapless against the run as HDG then FH will not have to kick distant field goals to secure a significant lead. It would appear that a tremendous potential for FH would be the long field goal in a close game.
If the game isn't close, which is usually the case, then having to kick one in the rain doesn't matter. I have been presupposing that Douglass may be the best team FH has played so far. They were the ones who benefited from bad weather against Dunbar, not the other way around.
When it's wet is when the kickoffs have not always gone in the end zone. If you kick to Douglass and they have a chance at a return, advantage Douglass.
Good points but I think the rain will take away the only advantage Douglass has which is speed.
I just posted in the other thread that radar shows a potential window 3 - 7PM with no rain. Interesting.
Douglass gets away with 5 downs in this series. Obviously stopped the kid on the 4th and 1 but the refs gave the penalty instead of the turnover in downs.
I could be wrong about the spot, did the TV have anything to say in it?
The down side is they have the athletes to be successful doing it. I hope FH makes the adjustments. FH needs...Pressure...Pressure...Pressure.
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