Cal Preps Projections for Fort Hill and the Playoffs

[Seasoned Lettuce]

First, everyone knows that Fort Hill is the favorite over Allegany at Homecoming. This is all contingent on Fort Hill beating Allegany at Homecoming and in Week 2 for the West Region Final. If Allegany beats Fort Hill at Homecoming and then again in the Playoff game then you can just interchange Allegany in these projections, the only thing different would be projected scores. The original projections are for Neutral Field games, and assume the Cal Preps formula favorites win all games. I've tacked on 3 points for Homefield Advantage, except in the FH/Allegany game where I kept it Neutral, along with the Championship Game. Teams in all Regions were seeded according to Neutral Observor's Final Playoff Point Projections. The first scenario assumes all projected winner will in fact win:

Fort Hill

Round 1-FH over Northern 51-12
Round 2-FH over Allegany 28-20
Round 3-FH over Cambridge SD 51-21
Round 4-FH over Reginald Lewis 48-12

Now, there is a very good chance of an upset with respect to 2 specific regions. First, I project what happens if Edmonson Westside defeats Reginald Lewis in the first round and subsequently wins the South Region. Reginald Lewis is only projected to defeat Edmonson Westside 25-17, but I think many can agree this game is a toss up. If Edmonson Westside wins the Region, it would look like this:

Fort Hill

Round 1-FH over Northern 51-12
Round 2-FH over Allegany 28-20
Round 3-FH over Edmonson Westside 51-6
Round 4-FH over Cambridge SD 48-21

Now, there is a very good chance of an upset with Fairmont Heights upsetting Havre de Grace to win the North Region. Havre de Grace is only projected to defeat Fairmont Heights 27-20, so again, this is potentially a toss up with Fairmont Heights being so battle tested. If Fairmont Heights wins the region, and all other projections hold, it would look like this. Let me also add, that the same exact scenario holds if both Edmonson Westside and Fairmont Heights score upsets and win their Regions:

Fort Hill

Round 1-FH over Northern 51-12
Round 2-FH over Allegany 28-20
Round 3-FH over Fairmont Heights 51-7
Round 4-FH over Cambridge SD 48-21

 

[Seasoned Lettuce]

It should be noted that clearly Allegany is projected to give Fort Hill the toughest playoff game, as the projection is Fort Hill 28-20 over Allegany. Outside of Allegany, Boonsboro and Cambridge SD are the only teams in all of 1A that are projected to give Fort Hill a game closer than a projected running clock. The # 2 seed (Reginald Lewis) loses to Fort Hill by 36 on a Neutral Field. With respect to Boonsboro and Cambridge SD, Boonsboro loses in Cumberland 47-17 (30 points) to Fort Hill, and Cambridge SD loses in Cumberland to Fort Hill 51-21 (30 points) and on a Neutral Field like the Championship game 48-21 (27 points).

 

[Seasoned Lettuce]

Again, the only fly in the ointment is Allegany. For example, Allegany could win Homecoming. If they do, they earn top seed in both the Region and the State. So if they beat Fort Hill also in the playoff game, they would play the exact same schedule as everything I have projected for Fort Hill up above. If, however, they win Homecoming and then lose in the Playoff game, Fort Hill would be relegated to the # 2 seed overall which would change the scenarios. Obviously if Boonsboro beats Allegany, then they become the week 2 opponent for Fort Hill. Confused yet?