I think there are two main areas that will determine this game (and it's not really that crazy insightful):
FH's D-line. Do they get to the Alco QB and make him rush his throws? If so, the FH secondary may cause some problems. Against Northern, a few times they hurried up the Alco QB and his throws were a little off. Not to his discredit, he's a helluva QB. But he was working against a secondary that wasn't quite as quick as FH's and still had a couple misfires. It's not going to be any easier if FH's Dlinemen are hot on his heels. With those three dbacks back in coverage, there may be some turnovers. Flip side, if the passing game is clicking for Alco, FH will have to make some serious adjustments.
And, the Alco run game. Alco runs out of the wing-T with the usual traps and sweeps, just like FH does. Nothing too foreign for either team to defend. They both know it like the back of their own hands. But, if Alco is watching any game film, and we all know they are dissecting it with a fine toothed comb, they will throw in some read option. Out of the wildcat or maybe throwing in a pistol look. But they HAVE to notice that FH has had some hiccups defending the read option. Not saying it completely rips the FH D to shreds, but it adds an element that FH has had to adjust to on the fly. The first half of the South High game comes to mind. I don't know if that is in Alco's repertoire, but if they are looking for wrinkles, a pistol option or a read-option could go a long way to their benefit. If not at Homecoming, then maybe if there is a second meeting, it could be more evident.
My gut says 12 points is about right. 28-16 for FH.