Class 1A West FINAL PROJECTIONS

[TDHelmick]

Using CalPreps for individual match ups, I have projected the final standings for the 1A West.

LINK: http://forthillfootball.net/schedules/2019/projections.htm

The Catoctin at Walkersville game is huge by all 1A standards. Even if Catoctin loses I still see them as the top seed in the West, but it would be real close. That is not really relevant because if FH and Catoctin are the top 2 seeds they cannot meet in the first two regional rounds anyway.

What is significant is that my projections have Catoctin as the No. 1 overall seed in Class 1A if they beat Walkersville. That puts Dunbar at No. 2 and Fort Hill at No. 3. That would mean FH is traveling to Dunbar for the semifinal game. If Walkersville beats Catoctin that means FH is traveling to Catoctin in the semifinals because Dunbar would take over the No. 1 seed in Class 1A.

Obviously if the upset or outcome of just one or two games takes place, these things can get rearranged.

 

[Blueandgold45]

I will throw this in. Talking to people and seeing the numbers they are putting up this year. If Douglass of PG was still 1A like last year, they would by far take the 1A title this year. Dunbar would not even give them a game this year.I know they aren’t 1A this year. But Douglass is the real deal they will win the 2A title this year. I know a lot of people dont like predictions like Cal Prep, but Cal was onboard with the Prep/FH game early on having Prep winning 42-14. Cal Preps has Douglass this year, from week 5 beating FH by 2 TD’s. And Dunbar about the same. I see FH handling Catoctin fairly easy no matter if they are the #1 seed. Might not be a 3 touchdown win, but they will come out on top. If all plays out will be the typical Dunbar/FH in 1A

 

[BrianH1974]

Everybody under the sun knows it all boils down to FH vs Dunbar per usual. While I like this new playoff system it would suck to see FH have to go to Baltimore to play that game again. Whatever, the point system is what it is. FH has thrived in it and Dunbar has thrived in it.

I would not annoint Douglass the best of 2A yet at this time. PG ball in 1A and 2A is bad and Douglass wont face anyone where they are the underdog.

 

[Tony54]

To me this looks like a very vulnerable fort hill team. In years past the defense got better as the season went on. Looking at the remaining games on the schedule I’m not sure if we will know how good they are. It looks like they won’t be tested until later in the playoffs. If I had to guess I would say that Fort Hill hasto put up big scoring numbers on any one of the top four or five teams in 1a

 

[novaunicorn]

Everybody under the sun knows it all boils down to FH vs Dunbar per usual. While I like this new playoff system it would suck to see FH have to go to Baltimore to play that game again. Whatever, the point system is what it is. FH has thrived in it and Dunbar has thrived in it.

I would not annoint Douglass the best of 2A yet at this time. PG ball in 1A and 2A is bad and Douglass wont face anyone where they are the underdog.

If fh has to go to catoctin or dunbar in the playoffs i don't see them winning either of those games on the road, so i don't think it's a given it's fh v dunbar.

 

[beall02]

I think that Fort Hill defeats Catoctin by 14+ without any major mistakes. I think the Dunbar game would be a toss up and it would be a great game. I would hate for that to be a semifinal match-up. I think that Fort Hill will struggle against any team that has speed and a decent to good passing game. No team is going to line up and run the ball effectively enough to beat Fort Hill. If someone does beat Fort Hill I think it has to be through the air.

 

[theprocessworks]

FH will win #8.

 

[TDHelmick]

I will stand by my calculations. The Walkersville vs. Catoctin game is huge by 1A playoff standards. It will decide who plays where in the semifinals most likely. I just don't see anyone else on the Catoctin, Dunbar or FH regular season schedule that can come close to taking any of them out.

With that said...
If Catoctin beats Walkersville the seedings will be as such:
1. Catoctin
2. Dunbar
3. Fort Hill

If Walkersville beats Catoctin the seedings will be as such:
1. Dunbar
2. Catoctin
3. Fort Hill
Although the 2 and 3 spot in this scenario will be by a very narrow margin.

Either way FH goes on the road in the semifinal if my calculations stand up. The Sentinels just don't play anyone down the stretch that is worth bonus points needed unless one of their beaten opponents goes on a winning streak.

 

[beall02]

I will stand by my calculations. The Walkersville vs. Catoctin game is huge by 1A playoff standards. It will decide who plays where in the semifinals most likely. I just don't see anyone else on the Catoctin, Dunbar or FH regular season schedule that can come close to taking any of them out.

With that said...
If Catoctin beats Walkersville the seedings will be as such:
1. Catoctin
2. Dunbar
3. Fort Hill

If Walkersville beats Catoctin the seedings will be as such:
1. Dunbar
2. Catoctin
3. Fort Hill
Although the 2 and 3 spot in this scenario will be by a very narrow margin.

Either way FH goes on the road in the semifinal if my calculations stand up. The Sentinels just don't play anyone down the stretch that is worth bonus points needed unless one of their beaten opponents goes on a winning streak.

If this does indeed pan out and Fort Hill has to go on the road for the semifinal round and they lose a close game do you think that changes the philosophy of being able to schedule more challenging games during the regular season?

 

[TDHelmick]

If this does indeed pan out and Fort Hill has to go on the road for the semifinal round and they lose a close game do you think that changes the philosophy of being able to schedule more challenging games during the regular season?

It might be. That was Keyser's main reasoning for dropping FH. They got tired of going on the road in the playoffs. But the way I see it, if Catoctin beats Walkersville then they earned that right.

FH has not been on the road for a playoff game since 2010. If this happens to be the year what are people really complaining about?

But yes, I would like to see FH play better teams like Wallkersville or Damascus or Linganore instead of teams like Cathedral Prep.

 

[Waggle Pass]

I will stand by my calculations. The Walkersville vs. Catoctin game is huge by 1A playoff standards. It will decide who plays where in the semifinals most likely. I just don't see anyone else on the Catoctin, Dunbar or FH regular season schedule that can come close to taking any of them out.

With that said...
If Catoctin beats Walkersville the seedings will be as such:
1. Catoctin
2. Dunbar
3. Fort Hill

If Walkersville beats Catoctin the seedings will be as such:
1. Dunbar
2. Catoctin
3. Fort Hill
Although the 2 and 3 spot in this scenario will be by a very narrow margin.

Either way FH goes on the road in the semifinal if my calculations stand up. The Sentinels just don't play anyone down the stretch that is worth bonus points needed unless one of their beaten opponents goes on a winning streak.

I posted earlier that the big schools on FH's schedule, Morgantown and Hedgesville have just one win between them. Morgantown was ranked like #3 in AAA preseason, Hedgesville was a playoff team the two previous seasons. Their lack of success has really hurt FH bonus point wise.

 

[RedPride97]

FH will win #8.

If they dont get a better defense on the field they won't