CLASS 1A FINAL PROJECTIONS - Who is in, who is out?

[TDHelmick]

With one week left in the regular season, here are the final playoff point projections for the 1A West:
LINK: Final Projections

NOTES
- If Southern beats Clear Spring on Monday, it looks like they will replace Mountain Ridge as the 8th seed in the 1A West Playoffs. This assumes Mountain Ridge loses at Keyser.

- After going through all scenarios, Fort Hill can no longer catch Catoctin for the top spot. Unless Brunswick can pull off a huge upset and beat Catoctin, that one is a done deal now regardless of what else happens the last week.

- Here are the projected top 4 seeds in all of Class 1A. The important remaining game is Cambridge-South Dorchester at Easton. These two teams are pretty evenly matched. If Cambridge wins they will wind up the overall #2 seed.

CLASS 1A FINAL PROJECTIONS
1. Dunbar - 9.01 points
2. Cambridge - 7.68 points
3. Catoctin - 7.56 points
4. Fort Hill - 7.44 points

If Cambridge loses to Easton
1. Dunbar
2. Catoctin
3. Fort Hill
4. Edmondson

 

[TDHelmick]

For any Fort Hill fan reading this, here is the deal...

There are four playoff games and then the state championship game in Annapolis on Dec 7.
With a win over Allegany at Homecoming, Fort Hill will be guaranteed a home game for the first 3 rounds of the playoffs as long as they keep advancing obviously.

There is no way to tell who or where Fort Hill might play in the 4th round should they get there. Only time and playoff results can determine that.

 

[BrianH1974]

Here is how the Maryland playoffs work. THESE ARE YOUR TOP SEEDS!

FH has beaten 1 team with a winning record (Hollidaysburg 6-4)

Catoctin has beaten 1 team with a winning record (Williamsport 5-4)

Edmondson has beaten 1 team with a winning record (Patterson 5-3)

Dunbar has beaten 2 teams with a winning record (Lewis 6-2, Edmondson 6-2)

Cambridge has beaten 2 teams with a winning record (Col Richardson 5-3, Nandua 5-4)

All of those beaten opponents are still mediocre to bad. So this new playoff has not changed squat. In fact I hear FH coaches are still crying because if they would have played Capital Christian instead of Cathedral Prep they would be the top over all seed. THEY ARE RIGHT!! Bad, bad point system that rewards teams for playing crap. Yet there are still dumb people saying play better teams. LOL.

 

[nomad974]

Here is how the Maryland playoffs work. THESE ARE YOUR TOP SEEDS!

FH has beaten 1 team with a winning record (Hollidaysburg 6-4)

Catoctin has beaten 1 team with a winning record (Williamsport 5-4)

Edmondson has beaten 1 team with a winning record (Patterson 5-3)

Dunbar has beaten 2 teams with a winning record (Lewis 6-2, Edmondson 6-2)

Cambridge has beaten 2 teams with a winning record (Col Richardson 5-3, Nandua 5-4)

All of those beaten opponents are still mediocre to bad. So this new playoff has not changed squat. In fact I hear FH coaches are still crying because if they would have played Capital Christian instead of Cathedral Prep they would be the top over all seed. THEY ARE RIGHT!! Bad, bad point system that rewards teams for playing crap. Yet there are still dumb people saying play better teams. LOL.

This only applies to 1A. Which will always be an anomaly in Maryland HS football.

 

[OneRing]

Here is how the Maryland playoffs work. THESE ARE YOUR TOP SEEDS!

FH has beaten 1 team with a winning record (Hollidaysburg 6-4)

Catoctin has beaten 1 team with a winning record (Williamsport 5-4)

Edmondson has beaten 1 team with a winning record (Patterson 5-3)

Dunbar has beaten 2 teams with a winning record (Lewis 6-2, Edmondson 6-2)

Cambridge has beaten 2 teams with a winning record (Col Richardson 5-3, Nandua 5-4)

All of those beaten opponents are still mediocre to bad. So this new playoff has not changed squat. In fact I hear FH coaches are still crying because if they would have played Capital Christian instead of Cathedral Prep they would be the top over all seed. THEY ARE RIGHT!! Bad, bad point system that rewards teams for playing crap. Yet there are still dumb people saying play better teams. LOL.

Nice research!

Yep. I've said before that this wont incentivize anyone playing a tougher schedule. They'll do exactly what you said and begin scheduling to guarantee home playoff games.

You used to have to schedule games that you might lose, but would be big-time point gainers. When Allegany misses the playoffs with one loss in the 80s, they didnt schedule enough other good teams to make it.

Now you dont have to schedule any good games at all. Sure, it might not hurt as bad to play those teams and lose, but there is no real upside at all to play those types of teams.

 

[Tony54]

Here is how the Maryland playoffs work. THESE ARE YOUR TOP SEEDS!

FH has beaten 1 team with a winning record (Hollidaysburg 6-4)

Catoctin has beaten 1 team with a winning record (Williamsport 5-4)

Edmondson has beaten 1 team with a winning record (Patterson 5-3)

Dunbar has beaten 2 teams with a winning record (Lewis 6-2, Edmondson 6-2)

Cambridge has beaten 2 teams with a winning record (Col Richardson 5-3, Nandua 5-4)

All of those beaten opponents are still mediocre to bad. So this new playoff has not changed squat. In fact I hear FH coaches are still crying because if they would have played Capital Christian instead of Cathedral Prep they would be the top over all seed. THEY ARE RIGHT!! Bad, bad point system that rewards teams for playing crap. Yet there are still dumb people saying play better teams. LOL.

You’re missing the point. How can you enjoy watching this good Ford Hill team [not even one of the best Fort Hill teams in recent years beat the living crap out of these horrible teams] Silver oak had a hard time lining up. Wouldn’t you enjoy your Friday nights a lot more by watching Fort Hill play some competitive football. I would much rather watch good games being played and if I have to travel to watch Fort hill play in the playoffs so be it.

 

[Waggle Pass]

As Todd pointed out in another thread, if FH loses the region to Catoctin, it's because Morgantown and Hedgesville, the largest schools on their schedule, are a combined 2-15 after being playoff schools just last year. Morgantown was picked as high as #3 in the WV AAA preseason poll. If either of those schools are .500 there is no discussion about being the top seed. Has nothing to do with losing to ECP.

 

[TDHelmick]

Here is how the Maryland playoffs work. THESE ARE YOUR TOP SEEDS!

FH has beaten 1 team with a winning record (Hollidaysburg 6-4)

Catoctin has beaten 1 team with a winning record (Williamsport 5-4)

Edmondson has beaten 1 team with a winning record (Patterson 5-3)

Dunbar has beaten 2 teams with a winning record (Lewis 6-2, Edmondson 6-2)

Cambridge has beaten 2 teams with a winning record (Col Richardson 5-3, Nandua 5-4)

All of those beaten opponents are still mediocre to bad. So this new playoff has not changed squat. In fact I hear FH coaches are still crying because if they would have played Capital Christian instead of Cathedral Prep they would be the top over all seed. THEY ARE RIGHT!! Bad, bad point system that rewards teams for playing crap. Yet there are still dumb people saying play better teams. LOL.

If FH would have just not played ECP or played Capital Christian instead, they would actually be the No. 2 overall seed. Dunbar would still be No. 1 because they get points for playing bad 3A and 2A teams who actually win 3-4 games. Which is basically the same philosophy FH has used the past 7 years. They tried it this year but got burned because Morgantown, Hedgesville and Southern - all playoff teams last season - were super poor win totals this year. Then FH really gets burned in the end because Alco is worth very little in points as well.

But I will agree that people who think that having more guts by playing top level opponents is the smart move with this system, they remind me of the old civil war soldiers who led the first charge. Tons of guts, but they died. The smart ones stay alive while being called cowards by their peers. I'll take the later.

My reply to anyone that complains about playing ECP...well, Catoctin didn't have to play Walkersville either. Then we go back into nobody needs to play anybody which equates to nobody in 1A or 2A wants to play FH.

 

[TDHelmick]

As Todd pointed out in another thread, if FH loses the region to Catoctin, it's because Morgantown and Hedgesville, the largest schools on their schedule, are a combined 2-15 after being playoff schools just last year. Morgantown was picked as high as #3 in the WV AAA preseason poll. If either of those schools are .500 there is no discussion about being the top seed. Has nothing to do with losing to ECP.

I could not have said that better, thank you. But also throw in Mountain Ridge, Southern and Alco in regards to low points as well. Last year all 3 were worth way more. I mean, if Alco doesn't lose half their starters and wins two more games were are not having this discussion.

 

[BrianH1974]

Oh wait I agree with most. I left the Green St game in the 1st qtr it was so bad. I think FH should pick up 2 more schools who are of equal caliber and drop playing one super power private school. I am more ragging on the point system. The MPSSAA made the playoff set up better but still dropped the ball with the point system. These FH games to close the last half of the regular season suck. Alco will be no different.

 

[Tony54]

All of this is true but do you really think that Fort Hill should be playing capital Christian, Green St., Academy, and Silveroak. I believe that fort hill would beat Walkersville, Oakdale and lacky. Then we could have enjoyed the season. Even 2 good games would be nice. Even if you really do not believe that Fort Hill is not that good there are about four or five different levels of talent between Walkersville and silver oak that fort hill could play.

 

[Waggle Pass]

I could not have said that better, thank you. But also throw in Mountain Ridge, Southern and Alco in regards to low points as well. Last year all 3 were worth way more. I mean, if Alco doesn't lose half their starters and wins two more games were are not having this discussion.

Oh I agree 100% about MR, Alco and Southern being disappointments as well.

Allegany is understandable with the devastating injuries and low numbers. But I think their biggest problem the last three years is their defense or lack there of.

Mountain Ridge is disappointing compared to last year, but lets face it last year they were pretty much a one man team if there ever was one.

Southern may be the biggest disappointment. After the last couple of years you thought maybe Nazelrod had things turned around, but I guess that's not the case.

Is Green Street a two year deal?

 

[TDHelmick]

Green Street Academy was a one year deal. I wouldn't rule them out being back on the schedule for next year though. Keep in mind that Northern and Southern will be a part of the 2020 schedule with the new league. Just have to rearrange some games to fit in Northern. Also Hollidayburg has notified everyone that their county is pushing for them to join a league or be an affiliate with a league to ease their schedule cost for all sports. They currently have signed a new two year deal with FH. We will see what happens there. As for rumors that continue to fly about FH not returning the game to Erie, that is false. FH will honor the contract and be there. But don't expect another heavy hitter on the schedule. I don't like what football has become, but the gaps at the smaller levels are huge. It's not going to get better and it's the fans that have to deal with or not the blow outs that we continually see. People that try to make it a FH thing can't see the forest through the trees. As was pointed out here...all of the 1A top seeds, and even Keyser, are full of complete mismatches.

 

[CumberlandHSFB]

Oh I agree 100% about MR, Alco and Southern being disappointments as well.

Allegany is understandable with the devastating injuries and low numbers. But I think their biggest problem the last three years is their defense or lack there of.

Mountain Ridge is disappointing compared to last year, but lets face it last year they were pretty much a one man team if there ever was one.

Southern may be the biggest disappointment. After the last couple of years you thought maybe Nazelrod had things turned around, but I guess that's not the case.

Is Green Street a two year deal?

The two years before this at Southern were a product of good talent. I knew they'd fall off a cliff, and I'm frankly surprised that people are well, surprised

 

[Wvu21795]

Here is how the Maryland playoffs work. THESE ARE YOUR TOP SEEDS!

FH has beaten 1 team with a winning record (Hollidaysburg 6-4)

Catoctin has beaten 1 team with a winning record (Williamsport 5-4)

Edmondson has beaten 1 team with a winning record (Patterson 5-3)

Dunbar has beaten 2 teams with a winning record (Lewis 6-2, Edmondson 6-2)

Cambridge has beaten 2 teams with a winning record (Col Richardson 5-3, Nandua 5-4)

All of those beaten opponents are still mediocre to bad. So this new playoff has not changed squat. In fact I hear FH coaches are still crying because if they would have played Capital Christian instead of Cathedral Prep they would be the top over all seed. THEY ARE RIGHT!! Bad, bad point system that rewards teams for playing crap. Yet there are still dumb people saying play better teams. LOL.

Catoctin also beat Boonsboro which will finish at 5-4

 

[everyones-an-expert]

http://mocofb.com/thread/2689/week-9-playoff-points-8?page=1

Neutral observers projections .
Easton is obviously ranked higher by Maxpreps. That’s a big game for sure , hopefully Easton beats Cambridge-SD.

 

[TDHelmick]

http://mocofb.com/thread/2689/week-9-playoff-points-8?page=1

Neutral observers projections .
Easton is obviously ranked higher by Maxpreps. That’s a big game for sure , hopefully Easton beats Cambridge-SD.

Neutral is off on points - but only by one/tenths.
Fort Hill cannot tie Catoctin in the point total.
Southern wins the tiebreaker over Mtn Ridge.

Fort Hill will play one of these 3 teams in the first round:
Brunswick, Southern or Clear Spring

 

[westernMD]

Not the end of the world to play a few playoff game on the road. I believe it was the 1998 Sentinels that won all their playoff games on the road before falling in the state finals to Urbana. That was a thrilling run by an overachieving team in 2A that year. I have never seen so few FH fans at home games as I witnessed the past two weeks. With the new format FH is a lock to be in the playoffs every year so no reason not to play better competition. I wish Apple had more of Jack Gilmore's attitude "Just play us, anytime, anywhere." Nothing wrong with being road warriors in the playoffs once in awhile.

 

[FHHSAHS]

During the playoffs, the MPSSAA gets the gate, correct? If so, gate money is not an argument against being on the road. Also, if a team has to travel for the playoffs, does the MPSSAA provide any travel expenses? Either way, FH has plenty of money for travel, so that's not an issue.

I tend to agree, so what if you have to go on the road? I've never truly understood why (in 1A) it was such a travesty for FH to go on the road for the playoffs? You have to win on the road for the title, regardless. Aside from Dunbar and whoever else might be a contender in any given year, there's no one in 1A that's going to have enough of a homefield advantage to really be an issue.

 

[theprocessworks]

I think Calhoun as much or more than Gilmore had that attitude. DeMatha, St Johns demonstrates that. Gilmore also is rightly mentioned as well.

 

[Tony54]

Exactly. I really can’t even tell if Fort Hills defense has gotten any better as the year went on. These last few teams are some of the worst I have ever seen

 

[RedPride97]

Not the end of the world to play a few playoff game on the road. I believe it was the 1998 Sentinels that won all their playoff games on the road before falling in the state finals to Urbana. That was a thrilling run by an overachieving team in 2A that year. I have never seen so few FH fans at home games as I witnessed the past two weeks. With the new format FH is a lock to be in the playoffs every year so no reason not to play better competition. I wish Apple had more of Jack Gilmore's attitude "Just play us, anytime, anywhere." Nothing wrong with being road warriors in the playoffs once in awhile.

96 we had to go on the road for the playoffs as well lost the title game to wheaton 21 0

 

[ecpalum]

Green Street Academy was a one year deal. I wouldn't rule them out being back on the schedule for next year though. Keep in mind that Northern and Southern will be a part of the 2020 schedule with the new league. Just have to rearrange some games to fit in Northern. Also Hollidayburg has notified everyone that their county is pushing for them to join a league or be an affiliate with a league to ease their schedule cost for all sports. They currently have signed a new two year deal with FH. We will see what happens there. As for rumors that continue to fly about FH not returning the game to Erie, that is false. FH will honor the contract and be there. But don't expect another heavy hitter on the schedule. I don't like what football has become, but the gaps at the smaller levels are huge. It's not going to get better and it's the fans that have to deal with or not the blow outs that we continually see. People that try to make it a FH thing can't see the forest through the trees. As was pointed out here...all of the 1A top seeds, and even Keyser, are full of complete mismatches.

Glad to see Fort Hill will be in Erie next year. I will be there. Can I make a suggestion for a team you guys might be willing to look at as an opponent, the Erie Royals. They are a 6A school(highest classification) really good skill players and are a horrible defensive team. Take a look at the Prep score. Prep dropped 61 on them, never punted only stopped on 3 turnovers. Erie scored 40 with really elusive backs, and had some big pass plays when Prep loaded the box. They will never stop the wing T and FH could grind up the clock, however Erie will break some big plays, it would be an entertaining game. Who knows if either school would either want the trip but just my 2 cents worth.

BTW Collin Johnson the prep QB was benched, for a Junior QB , for a couple of games, will see who starts the 1st playoff game this Friday.

 

[GenSneaky]

With almost everyone making the playoffs I have no problem with us scheduling some more competitive games to help fill the seats. Filling those seats is what helps pay for the program. I know I used to play for number one seed, but given the new playoff format I have completely change my thought process. However I’m sure being number one seed and the extra playoff games at the Stadium also help so it could go either way

 

[hbpass2]

If you’re good enough to win a state title and can keep playing the same schedule that’s gotten you home field throughout then you’re crazy to change what’s working in my opinion

 

[Tony54]

If you’re good enough to win a state title and can keep playing the same schedule that’s gotten you home field throughout then you’re crazy to change what’s working in my opinion

I am surprised that more people aren’t complaining about the how bad the opposition is It’s been hard to watch or listen to the whole game this year. Don’t you think for Hill is good enough to beat some average to good teams?

 

[OneRing]

If you’re good enough to win a state title and can keep playing the same schedule that’s gotten you home field throughout then you’re crazy to change what’s working in my opinion

That's my view of this. People keep saying the scheduling will get harder because there isnt a penalty, but there is now no incentive at all to playing a better schedule. It was that almost that way with 16 teams making it. It will just get worse now that even more make it.

 

[Wvu21795]

It's no wonder Fort Hill dominates 1A teams......you guys have the roster/numbers of a 3A school! Before you even take the field you have an advantage over 99% of 1A schools. Instead of crying about how bad the schedule is why not play 3A schools that match you number wise?

 

[hbpass2]

It's no wonder Fort Hill dominates 1A teams......you guys have the roster/numbers of a 3A school! Before you even take the field you have an advantage over 99% of 1A schools. Instead of crying about how bad the schedule is why not play 3A schools that match you number wise?

Did lag come back under a new name?

 

[CumberlandHSFB]

It's no wonder Fort Hill dominates 1A teams......you guys have the roster/numbers of a 3A school! Before you even take the field you have an advantage over 99% of 1A schools. Instead of crying about how bad the schedule is why not play 3A schools that match you number wise?

Big roster sure. I'd say maybe half of that roster is kids that you could actually trust if you plugged them in during a real game situation

 

[TDHelmick]

FH has a 3A roster in size but no way the amount of talent levels of the good 3A programs. People just don't like FH or Dunbar playing 1A ball despite the fact both are mid-size 1A schools because no one else in 1A can remotely compete with them on any consistent basis. Sure, maybe a Lackey or a Douglass steps up one year but it's not often. I would be satisfied if some of the better 1A teams just played each other. The problem is the distance to Cumberland for all those schools is too far when they have teams in their own back yards lined up to fill the schedule.

 

[Tony54]

It's no wonder Fort Hill dominates 1A teams......you guys have the roster/numbers of a 3A school! Before you even take the field you have an advantage over 99% of 1A schools. Instead of crying about how bad the schedule is why not play 3A schools that match you number wise?

DUH. We don’t make the schedule

 

[Wvu21795]

FH has a 3A roster in size but no way the amount of talent levels of the good 3A programs. People just don't like FH or Dunbar playing 1A ball despite the fact both are mid-size 1A schools because no one else in 1A can remotely compete with them on any consistent basis. Sure, maybe a Lackey or a Douglass steps up one year but it's not often. I would be satisfied if some of the better 1A teams just played each other. The problem is the distance to Cumberland for all those schools is too far when they have teams in their own back yards lined up to fill the schedule.

Not trying to knock your team but seriously guys....its a big advantage.

 

[TDHelmick]

Not trying to knock your team but seriously guys....its a big advantage.

So why does FH have a bigger roster size than most 1A teams? Again, they are mid-level 1A in enrollment and they are a public school. I know the answer, but some people don't want to hear it.

 

[everyones-an-expert]

FH has a first year player this year .
He’s been home schooled, with this being his first year at FH.
He’s a popular kid and wanted to play football.
He’s never played organized football in his life. But he wanted to be a part of the FH football team.

If you saw him in on the sidelines, you would think he’s a baller. He’s 6’1 , 180 and in seriously great shape.
It’s nothing magical about the program or anything like that . But FH gets lots of kids like this to come out. These kids want to be a part of it.

 

[Tony54]

So why does FH have a bigger roster size than most 1A teams? Again, they are mid-level 1A in enrollment and they are a public school. I know the answer, but some people don't want to hear it.

Thanks Todd. I’ll take a shot.
1. Tradition
2. community support
3. Coaches that the kids want to play for

 

[Waggle Pass]

Did lag come back under a new name?

Or is it Boyz under a new name. He makes those same silly arguments.

 

[ed r forshey]

Scheduling
Takes 2 to make a game
How many decent 1A schools really want to schedule Fort Hill
Hell I beat not to many decent 2A would agree

Regardless of what anyone thinks or says
Its all about playoff points and seeding
Everyone wants to be HOME for playoffs

 

[theprocessworks]

FH is an anomaly in 1 A, a phenomena, that’s why this is a never ending issue, FH football can’t be explained. The numbers, the right schedule to fit, etc. Dunbar is not a phenomen. They are a magnet school in a major metro area. FH is made of south end kids that decide to play football and stick with it. The reason for success is what people debate about on here. It’s real simple. Some just don’t want to admit it.

 

[Wvu21795]

FH is an anomaly in 1 A, a phenomena, that’s why this is a never ending issue, FH football can’t be explained. The numbers, the right schedule to fit, etc. Dunbar is not a phenomen. They are a magnet school in a major metro area. FH is made of south end kids that decide to play football and stick with it. The reason for success is what people debate about on here. It’s real simple. Some just don’t want to admit it.

True.....the number of students compared to the turnout for football is amazing. I think it's just a culture/tradition been built over years. Until other 1A schools get the turnout of players and fan/parent support it will continue in Fort Hills favor year in and year out.