First Round Playoff Projections

[TDHelmick]

From CalPreps

MARYLAND 1A PLAYOFFS
Fort Hill favored by 19 over Southern
Catoctin favored by 3 over Boonsboro

Cambridge-SD favored by 6 over Perryville
Havre de Grace favored by 28 over Colonel Richardson

Dunbar favored by 38 over Douglass-Balt
Lake Clifton favored by 3 over Reginald Lewis

Fairmont Heights favored by 9 over Largo
Lackey favored by 7 over Douglass-PG

WEST VIRGINIA PLAYOFFS LOCAL
Bridgeport favored by 14 over Frankfort
Keyser favored by 1 over Wayne

 

[KHSGT77]

Todd, I have noticed the last couple of weeks that the projections I do on Cal Preps do not match yours. When I run it, it comes up Wayne by 2. Could you provide a link to where you are doing the match up?

 

[bleedred]

Look for Cal preps 2018. Go to "Project a matchup", it's in the second box in the top row.

 

[TDHelmick]

Todd, I have noticed the last couple of weeks that the projections I do on Cal Preps do not match yours. When I run it, it comes up Wayne by 2. Could you provide a link to where you are doing the match up?

There are two projections on CalPreps. One is project a matchup, the other is projections.

project a matchup - you can pair any two teams together at any time and the result is based on playing on a neutral field

projections - that is the one I use. They only come out on late Monday night for that week's games. This takes home field into play.

 

[KHSGT77]

Found it. thanks !

 

[bleedred]

Wow, this old guy learned something new today! Thanks Todd.

 

[Redwhite90]

I'll take that action … Southern +19 to anyone giving it. Like any algorithm it's much more accurate when their are more common opponents. In this case they only have 2.The head to head and the ALCO game. Last week it predicted Hedgesville -20 and Tucker County -16. Both those teams lost. I know it's just a guide like most predictions and I may be totally off base but with 2 very good defenses like we will see Friday, I don't see a blowout unless one team suffers from the turnover bug on what looks to be another frigid playoff evening again.

="TDHelmick, post: 43243, member: 14"]From CalPreps

MARYLAND 1A PLAYOFFS
Fort Hill favored by 19 over Southern
Catoctin favored by 3 over Boonsboro

Cambridge-SD favored by 6 over Perryville
Havre de Grace favored by 28 over Colonel Richardson

Dunbar favored by 38 over Douglass-Balt
Lake Clifton favored by 3 over Reginald Lewis

Fairmont Heights favored by 9 over Largo
Lackey favored by 7 over Douglass-PG

WEST VIRGINIA PLAYOFFS LOCAL
Bridgeport favored by 14 over Frankfort
Keyser favored by 1 over Wayne

 

[TDHelmick]

I'll take that action … Southern +19 to anyone giving it. Like any algorithm it's much more accurate when their are more common opponents. In this case they only have 2.The head to head and the ALCO game. Last week it predicted Hedgesville -20 and Tucker County -16. Both those teams lost. I know it's just a guide like most predictions and I may be totally off base but with 2 very good defenses like we will see Friday, I don't see a blowout unless one team suffers from the turnover bug on what looks to be another frigid playoff evening again.

Yea, I thought 19 was high too. A typical oddsmaker might say FH won at Southern by 7 points. This one is in Cumberland so maybe 10 points. But I anticipate another good game because both teams play solid defense.

 

[ConeyIsland]

Yea, I thought 19 was high too. A typical oddsmaker might say FH won at Southern by 7 points. This one is in Cumberland so maybe 10 points. But I anticipate another good game because both teams play solid defense.

I think you guys have a lot of momentum, and are one of those teams that really got a lot better as the season went on. That, coupled with the game being at home, on the turf and having better athletes with a knockout defense makes me think y'all win by at least 14.

 

[20Trap]

FH kept that first game close with a big fumble inside their own 15 yard line and a couple critical penalties. Southern really did not move the ball all that well without assist from those penalties in the first game. I think Fort Hills O-line is a lot better than it was the first time around, and that will really be the biggest difference between this game and the first one. I'll take FH by anywhere from 3 scores to a running clock

 

[rbg444]

FH kept that first game close with a big fumble inside their own 15 yard line and a couple critical penalties. Southern really did not move the ball all that well without assist from those penalties in the first game. I think Fort Hills O-line is a lot better than it was the first time around, and that will really be the biggest difference between this game and the first one. I'll take FH by anywhere from 3 scores to a running clock

Southern has one chance - come out playing like they did on their last drive of the previous game, spread the field, throw every down, and see what happens.

 

[bigdawgrefwmd]

FH by 27..............

 

[hbpass2]

43-0 FH gets wide and runs away with it early. Just for good measure I’ll say FH goes for 2 just to make sure the clock stays running.

 

[camper21502]

I will take Southern and the 19 points.

 

[94ir14rog]

Give some credit to Southern's defense. To force 3 FGs and out of the end zone until the end of the game with the help of a huge penalty... I don't think that is a fluke or the result of grass vs. turf. Plus, can we talk more about this kicker. My god! 47 and 54 yard kicks. In horrible field conditions. This is NFL type stats. Even better than most!

It is weird because during the game, I actually felt good about seeing FG formation as this meant they kept them out of the end zone.

Looking forward to tonight. Not looking forward to the cold and wet conditions...

I would definitely take Southern and the points.

 

[RedPride97]

Give some credit to Southern's defense. To force 3 FGs and out of the end zone until the end of the game with the help of a huge penalty... I don't think that is a fluke or the result of grass vs. turf. Plus, can we talk more about this kicker. My god! 47 and 54 yard kicks. In horrible field conditions. This is NFL type stats. Even better than most!

It is weird because during the game, I actually felt good about seeing FG formation as this meant they kept them out of the end zone.

Looking forward to tonight. Not looking forward to the cold and wet conditions...

I would definitely take Southern and the points.

Take away a penalty and fumble and southern wouldn't have scored in the first game. I dont think they even get a sniff at the goal line tonight

 

[TDHelmick]

If someone would have told me before the last match up in Oakland that FH was going to lose 2 huge fumbles and have 12 penalties for 125 yards I would have said Southern has a great chance to win. I kept telling friends sitting next to me that if FH makes that field goal at the end of the first half and go up 9-0 that Southern could not score more than 9 points. FH tried to line the ball in the middle of the field at that moment with a handoff and fumbled it. 6-0 at the half. But as I mentioned here previously, that was the FH identity up to that point: great defense, great kicker, nickel/dime offense, penalties and fumbles. And as I said going into the Mountain Ridge game, FH has to cut back those penalties and fumbles or any game can be tight. That will be the factor tonight.

However, Southern was flagged for a huge personal foul on the FH final game winning drive that kept the drive going. Was it a personal foul? Nobody really knows. Were any of the personal fouls really legit? Case in point...

I hope the refs can stay out of the game to a better degree this time around. Let the kids decide it. There is no need for refs to be looking for every single foul they can find.

I think Southern will have to do something a little different offensively to turn the tide against this extremely stingy FH defense. I don't see them running the ball 90% of the time and getting enough points to win. Will not be surprised if the Southern QB lets it rip through the air a little more seeing the success they found throwing the ball on those last two drives the last game. The weather may make that task a little more difficult though.

I do foresee a low scoring game. Two very stout defenses tonight. The two best defenses west of Frederick.

 

[TDHelmick]

Has Southern played on turf this year?

 

[rbg444]

Give some credit to Southern's defense. To force 3 FGs and out of the end zone until the end of the game with the help of a huge penalty... I don't think that is a fluke or the result of grass vs. turf. Plus, can we talk more about this kicker. My god! 47 and 54 yard kicks. In horrible field conditions. This is NFL type stats. Even better than most!

It is weird because during the game, I actually felt good about seeing FG formation as this meant they kept them out of the end zone.

Looking forward to tonight. Not looking forward to the cold and wet conditions...

I would definitely take Southern and the points.

I think you brought up what I think is a huge key to the game, does Appel kicked field goals inside the 5 yard line again? If it's 4th and 10 at the 30, a field goal is great. If it's 4th and 2 at the 3 and you kick a field goal you are definitely sending a message, a bad one, to your team.

 

[Redwhite90]

I'll take that action … Southern +19 to anyone giving it. Like any algorithm it's much more accurate when their are more common opponents. In this case they only have 2.The head to head and the ALCO game. Last week it predicted Hedgesville -20 and Tucker County -16. Both those teams lost. I know it's just a guide like most predictions and I may be totally off base but with 2 very good defenses like we will see Friday, I don't see a blowout unless one team suffers from the turnover bug on what looks to be another frigid playoff evening again.

Well, I'll be the first to admit I was wrong. Total Domination by Fort Hill tonight in every facet of the game. Kudos to the players and coaches on a complete game and good luck through the rest of the playoffs! Bring another title back to the West!

 

[camper21502]

I'm glad nobody offered me Southern and 19 points or I would be out alot of money lol.. I figured FH would win by 14 or maybe 17 points. Boy was I completely wrong. I never thought they would stomp Southern worst than Alco lol.