FH Schedule Overperforming/FH Should Make Playoffs Easily Even at 7-3

[Seasoned Lettuce]

I AM NOT SAYING FORT HILL WILL FINISH 7-3, THEY VERY WELL MAY FINISH 10-0. But, even at 7-3, what I would call the Doomsday Scenario (which won't happen), with losses to Melbourne, Friendship and Allegany, it looks like they will safely make the playoffs, especially if Allegany beats Northern and Southern, which they should.

I am projecting that a 7-3 FH team with losses to Melbourne, Friendship and Allegany still finishes with between 68.9---70.9 points for a 6.89--7.09 average. If you look at Just My Thoughts playoff points projections from the Baltimore Sun Board, Allegany in that scenario would end up the 1 seed at 9-1 with 102.00 points or a 10.20 average. They have Southern at 7-3 which I don't get I see 8-2 but in any event Southern is projected at only 6.20, Catoctin at 5.80, and Northern at 5.70.

So, Doomsday scenario is still:
1) Allegany 10.20
2) Fort Hill 6.89-7.09
3) Southern 6.20
4) Catoctin 5.80

There could be a little but of a flip flop if Southern does indeed finish 8-2, in that event, it would be:
1) Allegany
2) Southern
3) Fort Hill
4) Catoctin

Anything strange could happen, but, assuming things go as they should, I submit that Fort Hill could lose to the BIG 3 and still comfortably make the playoffs as the 2nd or 3rd seed. Do I think they lose all 3, no way in the world, in fact, I think they very well may run the table. In any event, once again, the Fort Hill schedule is producing points at a rate higher than everyone elses.

 

[Seasoned Lettuce]

If you want to know where the FH projection of 68.9 to 70.9 points comes from, here it is:

US0 9.4 (5 Win Points plus 4.4 Bonus Points)
Keyser 12 (5 Win Points and 7 Bonus Points)
Hollidaysburg 13 (6 Win Points and 7 Bonus Points)
Silver Oak 7 or 8 (5 Win points and either 2 or 3 Bonus Points)
Westinghouse 10.5 (5 Win points and 5.5 Bonus Points)
Serra Catholic 10 (5 Win Points and 5 Bonus Points)
Mountain Ridge 7 or 8 (5 Win Points and either 2 or 3 Bonus Points)

 

[Seasoned Lettuce]

Northern and Southern are beating teams but the teams they are beating aren't giving them many bonus points. Catoctin is the same.

Northern has beaten Brunswick (3 wins), Tucker County (2 wins), Clear Spring (1 win), Frankfort (1 win).

Southern has beaten Smithsburg (1 win), Moorefield (0 wins), Catoctin (3 wins), Tucker County (2 wins).

Catoctin has beaten Boonsboro (3 wins), Frederick (0 wins), Smithsburg (1 win).

 

[towpath94]

Nice work, SL. This is one of the few years an 8 team region playoff would be pretty interesting especially the west region's 4-5 game and 3-6 game.

 

[BrianH1974]

Serra Catholic or Fairmont Heights??
If everyone recalls this is the week FH was supposed to travel to Fairmont Heights. Instead Fairmont Heights drops the contract and Serra Catholic fills the void.

In the end FH now gets a home game against a 4-2 team instead of a road game against a team who is now 0-5. Schedule making magic. Great work TDHelmick. Even Lagmeister is impressed after originally dogging you for only having 9 games.

It should be noted that Bishop Sullivan, the 1A sized national traveling team from Virginia Beach that FH turned down for this Week 6 now has a 2-4 record. They did beat Bishop McNamara 48-7 though. Serra Catholic worth more points.

BRILLIANT!!!