Crunching some numbers...

[Waggle Pass]

FH and Catoctin came into this weekend tied with 49 rating points.
FH picked up 9 pts for the win over GSA, 5 for beating a 1A, 4 bonus pts for their wins.
FH picked up two bonus pts for wins by Morgantown and Hollidaysburg.
The Southern-Clear Spring game TBD, but since Catoctin also beat Southern that's a wash.
FH should have 60 rating pts. now.

Catoctin got 7 pts for the forfeit win over 3A Thomas Johnson.
The only bonus point the Cougars picked up was Williamsport's win over MR. Boonsboro, Frederick, Smithsburg and Brunswick all lost.
Catoctin should have 57 rating pts.

FH can get 7 points for beating Allegany. Hollidaysburg's and Silver Oaks regular seasons are over.
Morgantown plays University and had a real chance of winning.
Hedgesville plays Jefferson and while Jefferson would be favored, who would be surprised if the Eagles won.
Green Street plays 1-7 Annapolis Area Christian. So the Chargers have a real shot at a win there.

Catoctin plays Brunswick next week. Cougars could pick up 9 pts, there
Boonsboro plays Smithsburg, Catoctin beat both so there is 1 point there and Frederick will get a forfeit over TJ for another, Williamsport plays South Hagerstown and a Williamsport win there would be a huge upset.
Catoctin can get 11 points next week, possibly 12 if Williamsport wins. FH and Catoctin both beat Southern and MR so if those schools win that's a wash.

I see Catoctin ending up with 68 points. FH needs two wins by the Morgantown, Hedgesville and GSA combination to end up with 69 points and winning 1A West.

Todd, please correct me if I missed something here.

 

[Waggle Pass]

Obviously final point totals would be affected if Southern wins this week and Southern and MR win next, but the bottom line is FH can win the region by one point.

 

[LinemenWinGames]

How does the bonus points work since MD MPSSAA teams are playing a 9 game schedule and some of the teams FH has beat play a 10 game schedule? For example, next Morgantown’s game next week against University will be their 10th game and Hollidaysburg’s win this week was their 10 game.

In years past when MD MPSSAA schools were on a 10 game max schedule and played teams like Silver Oak who use to play 11-12 games, only the first 10 games on the schedule were eligible for bonus points? Now that MD MPSSAA schools are on a 9 game max schedule wouldn’t the first 9 games only of a beaten opponent’s schedule count towards bonus points?

Does Hollidaysburg’s victory this week even count for FH?

 

[beall02]

How does the bonus points work since MD MPSSAA teams are playing a 9 game schedule and some of the teams FH has has beat play a 10 game schedule? For example, next Morgantown’s game next week against University will be their 10th game and Hollidaysburg’s win this week was their 10 game.

In years past when MD MPSSAA schools were on a 10 game max schedule and played teams like Silver Oak who use to play 11-12 games, only the first 10 games on the schedule were eligible for bonus points? Now that MD MPSSAA schools are on a 9 game max schedule wouldn’t the first 9 games only of a beaten opponent’s schedule count towards bonus points?

Does Hollidaysburg’s victory this week even count for FH?

You are correct. If the MD school plays the other school in the other schools Week 1 through Week 9 games then the first 9 games would count as far as bonus points go. Meaning that any games from Week 10 on for the other school wouldn't count for the MD school as far as bonus points go.

If the MD school is playing the other school in their Week 10 or later than you would count back 9 games from the week they played each other. Hopefully that makes sense.

 

[Waggle Pass]

Then what you're both saying is all my work was for nothing, lol. Or just another reason for Md to start a week earlier to get 10 games.

Without the Hollidaysburg win this week and a Morgantown win next, there's no way FH can win the region unless Brunswick can come up with a big upset.

 

[TDHelmick]

I posted this in another thread last night...but here it is in the simplest terms.

Assuming Fort Hill beats Allegany and Catoctin beats Brunswick.
Fort Hill needs every single one of these things to happen next weekend for the Sentinels to be the #1 seed in the West.

1. Hedgesville beats Jefferson (Jefferson favored by 15 points)
2. Green Street Academy beats Annapolis Area Christian (GSA favored by 14 points)
3. South Hagerstown beats Williamsport (South Hagerstown favored by 31 points)

New Edit (after recalculating this week's point totals, FH can no longer catch Catoctin for the #1 seed. Regardless of the above scenario.)

Based on projections the only thing that won't happen is Hedgesville beating Jefferson. If that does happen and the the rest hold true, then yes, FH will be the #1 seed in the West.

Otherwise, they will finish in a points total tie with Catoctin and Catoctin wins the tiebreaker by having more bonus points.

What royally crushed FH this year in points was Morgantown and Hedgesville (both playoff teams last year) having a current combined 2-15 record. And Alco only winning two games.

Whatever Southern does is not relevant as both FH and Catoctin beat Southern.

Yes, when other teams play a 10 game schedule, only the first 9 games count. So the Hollidaysburg win last night over Central does not count. Nor does anything Silver Oak does from here on out.

 

[Wvu21795]

I posted this in another thread last night...but here it is in the simplest terms.

Assuming Fort Hill beats Allegany and Catoctin beats Brunswick.
Fort Hill needs every single one of these things to happen next weekend for the Sentinels to be the #1 seed in the West.

1. Morgantown beats University (Morgantown favored by 14 points)
2. Hedgesville beats Jefferson (Jefferson favored by 15 points)
3. Green Street Academy beats Annapolis Area Christian (GSA favored by 14 points)
4. South Hagerstown beats Williamsport (South Hagerstown favored by 31 points)

Based on projections the only thing that won't happen is Hedgesville beating Jefferson. If that does happen and the the rest hold true, then yes, FH will be the #1 seed in the West.

Otherwise, they will finish in a points total tie with Catoctin and Catoctin wins the tiebreaker by having more bonus points.

What royally crushed FH this year in points was Morgantown and Hedgesville (both playoff teams last year) having a current combined 2-15 record. And Alco only winning two games.

Whatever Southern does is not relevant as both FH and Catoctin beat Southern.

Yes, when other teams play a 10 game schedule, only the first 9 games count. So the Hollidaysburg win last night over Central does not count. Nor does anything Silver Oak does from here on out.

Not sure about South favored by 31 over Williamsport.....2 of Souths star players are out for suspension in Boonsboro game. It will be closer than most think.

 

[TDHelmick]

Not sure about South favored by 31 over Williamsport.....2 of Souths star players are out for suspension in Boonsboro game. It will be closer than most think.

Yea, I use the CalPreps projections and they are not going to account for things such as players being out. But South has a pretty good team.

 

[Wvu21795]

Yea, I use the CalPreps projections and they are not going to account for things such as players being out. But South has a pretty good team.

Yes, you are right. This is the best team I've seen South have in years. I still think South wins because they just have the better team but I think it will be closer than 31.
Williamsport could be so much better if they changed their offense. They run a spread type and dont have the lineman to run it correctly. Williamsport has probably the biggest o line in the county....I think if they would run a power offense they would be hard to beat.