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2A/1A West Playoff Projections

eaglesinsider

All Region Poster
Feb 18, 2013
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Courtesy of Neutral Observer, with the highest ranked MaxPreps team winning each game. Should be good for some early discussion.

1A West

1) 7.9 Boonsboro (8-2)
2) 7.6 Ft Hill (8-2)
3) 7.4 North Carroll (8-2)
4) 6.3 Hancock (8-2)

5) 5.9 Manchester Valley (7-3)
6) 5.7 Northern-Gar (7-3)
7) 4.6 Clear Spring (5-5)
8) 3.4 Allegany (5-5)
9) 2.6 Smithsburg (3-7)
10) 1.7 Brunswick (2-8)
11) 0.0 Southern-Gar (0-10)

2A West

1) 11.9 Oakland Mills (10-0)
2) 7.8 South Carroll (8-2)
3) 6.8 Williamsport (8-2)
4) 6.8 Marriotts Ridge (7-3)

5) 6.3 Middletown (6-4)
6) 6.1 Walkersville (7-3)
7) 3.9 Liberty (5-5)
8) 3.4 Catoctin (4-6)
9) 2.2 Century (3-7)
10) 0.7 FSK (1-9)
11) 0.6 Winters Mill (1-9)
12) 0.5 Mountain Ridge (1-9)
 
Allegany should be 9-0 or 8-1 going into Homecoming with FH. Unless Chestnut Ridge or Frederick step up their game I don't see Allegany losing outside of a tough fight at Keyser.

It should be no surprise that Alco, FH and Keyser are the Big 3 in this area for 2015 with Frankfort deserving a part of the discussion. But Frankfort won't play the Cumberland schools so it's a moot discussion.
 
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Here's what CalPreps predicts for Western MD:

Allegany (8-2):

Week 1 (9/4)- Harford Tech- W 35-6
Week 2 (9/11)- at Chestnut Ridge (PA)- W 19-17
Week 3 (9/18)- Mountain Ridge- W 31-13
Week 4 (9/25)- at Keyser (WV)- L 14-21
Week 5 (10/2)- Silver Oak- W 26-12
Week 6 (10/9)- Frederick- W 34-10
Week 7 (10/16)- at Capitol Christian- W 21-14
Week 8 (10/23)- at Northern Garrett- W 28-20
Week 9 (10/30)- Brunswick- W 28-21
Week 10 (11/7)- vs. Fort Hill- L 10-35

Fort Hill (10-0):

Week 1 (9/4)- at Clearfield (PA)- W 34-20
Week 2 (9/11)- Keyser (WV)- W 34-14
Week 3 (9/18)- at Chestnut Ridge (PA)- W 35-7
Week 4 (9/25)- Silver Oak- W 44-7
Week 5 (10/2)- Capitol Christian- W 40-7
Week 6 (10/9)- Avalon- W 35-14
Week 7 (10/16)- South Hagerstown- W 35-24
Week 8 (10/23)- at Sherando (VA)- W 34-20
Week 9 (10/30)- at Mountain Ridge- W 49-6
Week 10 (11/7)- vs. Allegany- W 35-10

Mountain Ridge (1-9):
Week 1 (9/4)- John Marshall (WV)- L 14-31
Week 2 (9/11)- at Hedgesville (WV)- W 40-21
Week 3 (9/18)- at Allegany- L 13-31
Week 4 (9/25)- Hampshire (WV)- L 19-28
Week 5 (10/2)- at Frankfort (WV)- L 14-41
Week 6 (10/9)- Juniata (PA)- L 17-34
Week 7 (10/16)- Northern Garrett- L 19-28
Week 8 (10/23)- Spring Mills (WV)- L 26-28
Week 9 (10/30)- Fort Hill- L 6-49
Week 10 (11/6)- at Keyser (WV)- L 8-38

Southern Garrett (1-9):
Week 1 (9/4)- Hancock- L 19-34
Week 2 (9/11)- Moorefield (WV)- L 6-40
Week 3 (9/18)- Petersburg (WV)- W 28-17
Week 4 (9/25)- at Spring Mills (WV)- L 14-35
Week 5 (10/2)- Tucker County (WV)- L 14-31
Week 6 (10/10)- at Randolph Macon Academy (VA)- L 17-31
Week 7 (10/16)- Pendleton County (WV)- L 3-38
Week 8 (10/23)- Clear Spring- L 7-38
Week 9 (10/30)- at Berkeley Springs (WV)- L 21-28
Week 10 (11/6)- at Northern Garrett- L 6-41

Northern Garrett (6-4):
Week 1 (9/4)- Smithsburg- W 21-14
Week 2 (9/11)- at Tucker County (WV)- W 28-14
Week 3 (9/18)- Keyser (WV)- L 14-34
Week 4 (9/25)- Frankfort (WV)- L 19-34
Week 5 (10/3)- at Clear Spring- W 22-20
Week 6 (10/9)- at Pendleton County (WV)- W 21-20
Week 7 (10/16)- at Mountain Ridge- W 28-19
Week 8 (10/23)- Allegany- L 20-28
Week 9 (10/30)- at Boonsboro- L 20-28
Week 10 (11/6)- Southern Garrett- W 41-6
 
While I'm at it, CalPreps Predictions for the rest of 1A West

Hancock (7-3):
Week 1 (9/4)- at Southern Garrett- W 34-19
Week 2 (9/11)- Mount Carmel- L 24-28
Week 3 (9/19)- at Carson Long Military (PA)- W 49-7
Week 4 (9/25)- at Clear Spring- L 17-34
Week 5 (10/3)- Washington- W 28-24
Week 6 (10/9)- SEED- W 34-17
Week 7 (10/16)- Maryland School for the Deaf- L 21-38
Week 8 (10/23)- at Massanutten Military (VA)- W 42-14
Week 9 (10/31)- Friends- W 31-26
Week 10 (11/6)- at Berkeley Springs (WV)- W 28-22

Clear Spring (4-6):
Week 1 (9/5)- at Saint James- L 21-22
Week 2 (9/11)- Brunswick- L 24-28
Week 3 (9/18)- at Manchester Valley- L 17-27
Week 4 (9/25)- Hancock- W 34-17
Week 5 (10/3)- Northern Garrett- L 20-22
Week 6 (10/10)- at Smithsburg- W 26-14
Week 7 (10/16)- at Berkeley Springs (WV)- W 35-12
Week 8 (10/23)- at Southern Garrett- W 38-7
Week 9 (10/30)- East Hardy (WV)- L 21-26
Week 10 (11/6)- at Williamsport- L 21-31

Boonsboro (8-2):
Week 1 (9/4)- Catoctin- L 21-22
Week 2 (9/11)- at North Carroll- L 17-24
Week 3 (9/18)- at Brunswick- W 31-20
Week 4 (9/25)- Middletown- W 26-21
Week 5 (10/2)- Williamsport- W 31-26
Week 6 (10/9)- at Francis Scott Key- W 35-7
Week 7 (10/16)- North Hagerstown- W 26-20
Week 8 (10/23)- Manchester Valley- W 24-21
Week 9 (10/30)- Northern Garrett- W 28-20
Week 10 (11/6)- at Smithsburg- W 28-10

Smithsburg (0-10):
Week 1 (9/4)- at Northern Garrett- L 14-21
Week 2 (9/11)- Manchester Valley- L 10-28
Week 3 (9/18)- North Carroll- L 6-28
Week 4 (9/25)- at Catoctin- L 7-31
Week 5 (10/2)- at North Hagerstown- L 17-26
Week 6 (10/10)- Clear Spring- L 14-26
Week 7 (10/16)- at Brunswick- L 17-28
Week 8 (10/23)- Havre de Grace- L 14-28
Week 9 (10/30)- Williamsport- L 14-31
Week 10 (11/6)- Boonsboro- L 10-28

Manchester Valley (6-4):
Week 1 (9/4)- at Brunswick- W 28-24
Week 2 (9/11)- at Smithsburg- W 28-10
Week 3 (9/18)- Clear Spring- W 27-17
Week 4 (9/25)- at Francis Scott Key- W 34-7
Week 5 (10/2)- South Carroll- L 10-34
Week 6 (10/9)- Century- W 21-13
Week 7 (10/16)- Liberty- L 21-31
Week 8 (10/23)- at Boonsboro- L 21-24
Week 9 (10/30)- Winters Mill- W 41-14
Week 10 (11/6)- at North Carroll- L 17-24

North Carroll (8-2):

Week 1 (9/4)- at Middletown- W 27-17
Week 2 (9/11)- Boonsboro- W 24-17
Week 3 (9/18)- at Smithsburg- W 28-6
Week 4 (9/25)- at Century- W 24-7
Week 5 (10/2)- Brunswick- W 31-20
Week 6 (10/9)- at Liberty- L 21-28
Week 7 (10/16)- at Winters Mill- W 42-12
Week 8 (10/23)- South Carroll- L 12-31
Week 9 (10/30)- Francis Scott Key- W 38-6
Week 10 (11/6)- Manchester Valley- W 24-17

Brunswick (3-7):
Week 1 (9/4)- Manchester Valley- L 24-28
Week 2 (9/11)- at Clear Spring- W 28-24
Week 3 (9/18)- Boonsboro- L 20-31
Week 4 (9/25)- at Frederick- W 35-20
Week 5 (10/2)- at North Carroll- L 20-31
Week 6 (10/9)- Middletown- L 22-28
Week 7 (10/16)- Smithsburg- W 28-17
Week 8 (10/23)- at Walkersville- L 14-28
Week 9 (10/30)- at Allegany- L 21-28
Week 10 (11/6)- Catoctin- L 21-31
 
CalPreps Playoff Favorites would be

- Fort Hill (10-0)
- Allegany (8-2)
- Boonsboro (8-2)
- North Carroll (8-2)
- Hancock (7-3)
- Manchester Valley (6-4)
- Northern Garrett (6-4)

I don't think North Carroll will be anywhere near 8-2. Manchester Valley will probably be the playoff team from Carroll. Hancock might get outpointed by a 6-4 team since their schedule is so light.

Also, I don't know what the MPSSAA plan is to balance out the regions, but right now 80% of teams in 1A East make the playoffs since only 5 of the 10 in the region play football.
 
Also, I don't know what the MPSSAA plan is to balance out the regions, but right now 80% of teams in 1A East make the playoffs since only 5 of the 10 in the region play football.

Wow, I didn't pick up on that. Hmmmmm...that can't be. If Class 1A East has 5 football teams there is no way the MPSSAA can justify taking 4 playoff teams from there when the East has 11 teams. In the past they made a special regional alignment for football. They either have to do the same or take out the regional playoff system for Class 1A. I suspect they adjust for football. Then again this is Maryland.
 
Wow, I didn't pick up on that. Hmmmmm...that can't be. If Class 1A East has 5 football teams there is no way the MPSSAA can justify taking 4 playoff teams from there when the East has 11 teams. In the past they made a special regional alignment for football. They either have to do the same or take out the regional playoff system for Class 1A. I suspect they adjust for football. Then again this is Maryland.

Yeah, right now you have 11 in 1A West, 9 in 1A North, 13 in 1A South and 5 in 1A East.

You could move North Carroll/Manchester Valley from West to East, it's only about an hour longer for a "worst case" travel scenario (NC/MV to N/S Garrett vs. NC/MV to Snow Hill). Then pick 2 from 1A South to move to 1A East. That would give you 9, 9, 11 and 9 teams for 2015. Northwestern-B is closing at the end of the 2015-16 school year which will bring 1A South down to 10 teams.

That would be fair and balanced and I'm sure won't happen because, as you said, the MPSSAA is the MPSSAA.
 
I just found out that YES, the MPSSAA has moved teams in Class 1A football to make a more regional balance. Class 1A East Football will consist of Cambridge, Snow Hill, Washington, Col. Richardson, Joppatowne, Perryville, Havre de Grace, Kent County, Patterson Mill and Bohemia Manor. Pretty much the same as last year. Although the MPSSAA has not officially released any info.
 
I just found out that YES, the MPSSAA has moved teams in Class 1A football to make a more regional balance. Class 1A East Football will consist of Cambridge, Snow Hill, Washington, Col. Richardson, Joppatowne, Perryville, Havre de Grace, Kent County, Patterson Mill and Bohemia Manor. Pretty much the same as last year. Although the MPSSAA has not officially released any info.

So that gives you:

1A West (11)
- Boonsboro
- Fort Hill
- North Carroll
- Hancock
- Manchester Valley
- Northern Garrett
- Clear Spring
- Allegany
- Smithsburg
- Brunswick
- Southern Garrett

1A North (4)
- Forestville
- Surrattsville
- Fairmont Heights
- McDonough

1A South (13)
- Northwestern (Baltimore)
- Reginald Lewis
- Lake Clifton
- National Academy
- FAET
- Forest Park
- Edmondson
- Ben Franklin
- Bluford Drew Jemison
- Maritime Academy
- New Era
- Pikesville
- Southwestern

1A East (10)
- Kent County
- Cambridge-South Dorchester
- Washington
- Colonel Richardson
- Snow Hill
- Bohemia Manor
- Perryville
- Havre de Grace
- Joppatowne
- Patterson Mill

So I guess they'll move 4-5 from 1A South to 1A North to even those out. Also kid of funny that PG/Southern MD is "1A North" and Baltimore City is 1A South.
 
Alignments for football will be pretty close to what existed last season. Although I would consider moving the Carroll County schools out of the West. It's over a 2 hour drive for them to Cumberland, 3 hours to Garrett County, but only 40 minutes from Baltimore. It won't happen because of the powers that be in Baltimore. God forbid those teams would have to travel more than 30 minutes.

To keep the regional playoff format, the MPSSAA will have to split the regions evenly as they have in the past. For them to do that, the West cannot have 11 teams.
 
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1A Football Alignments should look like this:

NORTH
1. Edmondson
2. Lake Clifton
3. Northwestern
4. National Academy
5. Forest Park
6. Maritime Academy
7. Reginal Lewis
8. Benjamin Franklin
9. New Era
10. WEB Duboise

SOUTH
1. Fairmont Heights
2. Forestville
3. Surrattsville
4. FAET
5. McDonough
6. Bluford Drew Jemison
7. Pikesville
8. North Carroll
9. Manchester Valley

EAST
1. Colonel Richardson
2. Cambridge
3. Kent County
4. Washington
5. Snow Hill
6. Bohemia Manor
7. Perryville
8. Havre de Grace
9. Joppatowne
10. Patterson Mill

WEST
1. Allegany
2. Fort Hill
3. Brunswick
4. Northern Garrett
5. Southern Garrett
6. Boonsboro
7. Clear Spring
8. Hancock
9. Smithsburg
 
HUGE disappointment this year if Alco is 5-5.
If Alco goes 5-5 the city council will pass "Can the Corn Day." They will be heating tar at Canal Place while gathering a rail and feathers - metaphorically, of course. Talent this year at Alco is shaping up to be the usual crushing defeat of expectations brought on by the usual abysmal poverty of coaching. If FH doesn't make the playoffs Alco could go 10 - 2 before getting knocked out and one of those loses will be a heart-breaking defeat at homecoming. Hey, this is how I see it and I'm a fan.
 
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